Here’s How GTA Home Prices and Sales Changed One Month After COVID-19 Measures Were Announced [REPORT]

By: Steven Liambas
April 23, 2020

It’s evident that COVID-19 is having a far-reaching impact on the Canadian economy and healthcare system. Although the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market was previously gearing up for a busy spring season, policy and physical distancing measures resulting from Ontario’s state of emergency declaration put a damper on much of the expected sales activity.

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) noted that the impact of COVID-19 on sales and prices in the GTA appeared muted in March, largely due to strong sales activity in the first half of the month, which was before any COVID-19 measures were implemented.

To keep a pulse on market activity in the short term, we used data from the TRREB to calculate the change in average home prices and home sales between March 16 – April 15, 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 to understand how the market changed across the GTA one month after COVID-19 measures were put into effect, or what TRREB calls the “post-COVID” period in their March market update.

Our analysis revealed that home sales dropped over 50% year-over-year (y-o-y) during this period in most GTA regions, with the exception of Durham Region where sales dropped 30%. On the other hand, all 27 GTA municipalities except two experienced (y-o-y) price growth.

Here’s a snapshot of where average prices and home sales landed in each GTA region for March 16 to April 15, one month after COVID-19 measures were introduced by Ontario.


City of Toronto Prices Rise Except in Toronto Central

For the period of March 16 to April 15, the average sold home price grew 4% y-o-y in the City of Toronto, ending up at $918,796. A closer look at prices in the region revealed that Toronto East experienced a double digit, 14% gain to $872,658 and Toronto West noted an 8% average home price increase to $878,658. Toronto Central is one of two municipalities out of 27 in the GTA where prices declined; the region noted a 1% drop in prices to $984,332.

Sales on the other hand, experienced sharp declines. The City of Toronto as a whole experienced a 54% drop, with just 1,456 sales taking place in the month since emergency measures were introduced. Toronto Central sales declines were slightly higher than the city-wide average, with a 57% decline and 634 transactions.


Home Sales in Durham Least Impacted Compared to Other GTA Regions

Home sales dropped 30% in Durham Region with 724 home transactions in the month following COVID-19 emergency measures being put in place. Prices grew a modest 3% y-o-y to $632,227.

In Ajax, average home prices rose 9% to $708,034, but sales dropped 31%. Whitby average prices followed a similar trend, with a 5% increase in average prices to $690,307 but a 35% drop in sales. Oshawa experienced a 7% increase in average sold home prices to $519,955 and a 21% y-o-y sales decline.


In Halton Region, Oakville Sees Double Digit Price Growth

Unless you absolutely need to sell, most sellers have decided to wait out current market conditions to maximize their potential sale price once health and economic conditions begin to improve.

Sales data reflects this sentiment, with home sales down 54% across the region for the period of March 16 to April 15. That being said, home prices in Halton Region have grown 5% y-o-y, with the highest increase in Oakville, where the average home price remains over the million dollar mark at $1,059,850. Milton was a close second, with 7% growth in average prices y-o-y, but a 56% decrease in sales.

In comparison, Burlington average home prices remained relatively steadier, with a 1% increase y-o-y to $783,561; sales dropped 51% y-o-y. Similarly, a closer look at Halton Hills revealed that home prices grew 2% to $785,898 while sales dropped 41% y-o-y.


Brampton Leads Peel Region Price Growth One Month After COVID-19 Measures Implemented

Average home prices in Peel grew 6% y-o-y to $800,025 in the month since emergency measures were implemented. Brampton led the pack with respect to average price growth with an 8% increase to $768,710. In Mississauga, the average home price was $819,096 after one month of quarantine measures, reflecting a 7% y-o-y increase.

Sales on the other hand dropped 59% across the region. There were 355 home sales in Brampton, and 381 sales in Mississauga during the month.


York Region Experiences Highest Regional Price Gains; Sales Drop Over 50%

York Region average home prices grew 8% to $959,364, while sales across the region declined by 52% during the period of March 16 to April 15.

Markham home prices grew by 17% to cross the million mark at $1,030,611, even though sales declined by 50% compared to the same period last year. Vaughan experienced one of the steepest declines in sales in the region at 61% and just 150 homes changing hands. The average home price in Vaughan ended up at $1,006,503, marking a 7% increase y-o-y. Home prices inched up by 1% in Richmond Hill to $973,574, while sales declined 44%.


Check out our infographic below to see how average sold prices and home sales for March 16 to April 15, one month “post-COVID”, compare to the same period last year for all GTA markets.


GTA Municipalities with the Largest Price Increases

1. Markham, York Region

Average home price, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: $1,030,611

Average home price change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: +17%

Home sales, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: 196

Home sales change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: -50%

2. Toronto East, City of Toronto

Average home price, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: $872,658

Average home price change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: +14%

Home sales, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: 420

Home sales change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: -49%

3. Aurora, York Region

Average home price, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: $961,474

Average home price change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: +13%

Home sales, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: 55

Home sales change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: -47%

4. E. Gwillimbury, York Region

Average home price, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: $869,193

Average home price change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: +12%

Home sales, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: 27

Home sales change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: -49%

5. Whitchurch-Stouffville, York Region

Average home price, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: $1,023,796

Average home price change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: +12%

Home sales, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: 23

Home sales change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: -65%


GTA Municipalities With Largest Price Decreases or Smallest Increases

1. King, York Region

Average home price, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: $1,184,900

Average home price change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: -2%

Home sales, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: 20

Home sales change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: -44%

2. Toronto Central, Toronto

Average home price, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: $984,332

Average home price change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: -1%

Home sales, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: 634

Home sales change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: -57%

3. Burlington, Halton Region

Average home price, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: $783,561

Average home price change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: +1%

Home sales, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: 130

Home sales change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: -51%

4. Caledon, Peel Region

Average home price, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: $932,810

Average home price change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: +1%

Home sales, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: 29

Home sales change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: -72%

5. Richmond Hill, York Region

Average home price, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: $973,574

Average home price change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: +1%

Home sales, Mar 16 – April 15, 2020: 140

Home sales change from Mar 16 – April 15, 2019: -44%


Methodology

Average home prices and sales for each municipality are based on the sold date of March 16 to April 15, 2020 and March 16 to April 15, 2019. Data was retrieved on April 22, 2020.


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